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Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development

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Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy: a disaggregated SVAR analysis

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Published in Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development. Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode

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Abstract

Purpose

The present paper aims to evaluate the structural impact of exogenously induced fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy. This entails an analysis of the effect on the GDP of COVID-19-induced fiscal shocks manifesting in terms of budgetary revenues and expenditures. A key aspect of this analysis addresses the size of the tax and fiscal multipliers.

Design/methodology/approach

The study examines the structural relationship between five variables during the period between Q1 2009 and Q2 2020 using an SVAR approach that allows for a dynamic interaction between ordinary expenditures and revenues on a quarterly basis.

Findings

Positive structural shocks on public spending are likely to negatively impact economic growth. Negative economic growth, in turn, will damage price levels and interest rates, mainly over the long term. However, public-revenue-multiplier-associated shocks exceed these price- and interest-rate multiplier-associated shocks. Indeed, a structural shock to ordinary revenues can have a positive but insignificant impact on the GDP stemming from the ensuing decrease in the government budget deficit that proceeds from the increase in government revenues.

Originality/value

This is one of the first studies in the Moroccan context to assess the impact of the current worldwide pandemic on public finances. In addition, this study highlights the importance of boosting economic recovery through public spending.
  • ISSN: 2635-1374
  • e-ISSN: 2635-1692
  • Online date, start – end: 2021
  • Copyright Holder: Ahlia University
  • Open Access: open access
  • Editor: Professor Allam Hamdan

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